Tuesday 31 July 2018

Sensex Opens Marginally Up; Tata Motors Falls on Weak Q1 Result

Asian stock markets are lower today as Japanese and Hong Kong shares fall. The Nikkei 225 is off 0.5% while the Hang Seng is down 0.2%. The Shanghai Composite is trading down by 0.3%. US stocks rebounded on Tuesday, boosted by gains in industrial shares following reports of renewed trade negotiations between the United States and China.
Back home, India share markets have opened the day marginally higher. The BSE Sensex is trading up by 56 points while the NSE Nifty is trading up by 24 points. The BSE Mid Cap index opened and BSE Small Cap index opened the day up by 0.3% & 0.1% respectively.
Irrespective of the market sentiment, the BSE Sensex is scaling new highs. But look around you.
How many investors do you still see getting richer every day? Fewer than what you saw at the start of the year? Very few?
Well, the Sensex has gained Rs 60 trillion in market cap since 2004. That's a huge number. Nearly a third of the country's GDP. But how many investors have really benefitted from this rally? Very very few.
Also, because most of those who joined burnt their fingers with bad quality stocks. So, every time there was a sharp correction, these investors were the worst affected.
In the three big crashes since 2004, the Sensex lost about 31 trillion of market cap. And most of the investors who were scarred never bothered returning.
Sensex Gained Rs 60 Trillion and Lost Rs 31 Trillion of Market Cap Since 2004
Moving on... the rupee is currently trading at 68.61 to the US$.
Barring power stocks, all sectoral indices have opened the in green with energy stocks and PSU stocks witnessing maximum buying interest.
In the news from the automobile sector. In the latest development, Tata Motors Ltd reported its first quarterly loss in nearly three years on Tuesday, as its UK subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover sold fewer of its luxury cars to dealerships in China, while raw material costs rose.
The automaker said its first-quarter net loss was Rs 18.6 billion, compared with a profit of Rs 31.8 billion a year earlier that included a Rs 36.1 billion gain from changes to the way JLR's pension payments are calculated.
Reportedly, dealers in China delayed purchases to benefit from an import duty cut that came into effect after the end of the reporting quarter, and the planned dealer stock reduction in other markets also weighed on its business. That resulted in a 6.7% drop in quarterly revenue for JLR.
Total consolidated revenue from operations, however, rose to Rs 670.8 billion as compared with Rs 598.2 billion in the year ago period.
Total expenses during April-June rose about 17% to Rs 698.9 billion.
On a standalone basis, Tata Motors reported a net profit of Rs 11.9 billion. It had reported a net loss of Rs 4.6 billion in the first quarter last fiscal. Standalone total revenue from operations grew to Rs 168 billion during the quarter compared to Rs 103.7 billion in the same period of 2017-18.
Standalone volume rose 59% to 1,76,868 units driven by robust sales of commercial and passenger vehicles in the Indian market.
Tata Motors' share price opened the day down by 4.3%.
In another development. As per the data released by the commerce and industry ministry, growth of eight core sectors expanded to 7-month high of 6.7% in June due to better performance by cement, refinery and coal segments.
The eight sectors, which also include fertilisers, steel, natural gas, electricity and crude oil, had expanded by 1% in June last year.
The previous high rate of growth was recorded in November 2017 at 6.9%.
The growth rate in May was 4.3%.
Reportedly, the expansion in cement, refinery products and coal was 13.2%, 12% and 11.5% respectively, year-on-year basis.
Crude oil and natural gas registered a negative growth of 3.4% and 2.7% respectively in June compared to the year-ago period.
The expansion in the electricity generation was 4% in June compared to 2.2% in the same month of the last fiscal.
Steel sector, however witnessed a slower growth of 4.4% compared to 6% in June 2017.
The data revealed that expansion rate in the fertiliser segment was 1%, better than negative growth recorded in the year ago month.
During the April-June quarter of the current fiscal, the eight core industries recorded a growth of 5.2% as against 2.5% in the same period last year.
These eight core industries comprise 40.3% of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
To get more updates on share market, click here.
This article was originally published in English at www.equitymaster.com
Read the complete Indian stock market update. For the terms of use, go here.

Wednesday 25 July 2018

Sensex Opens Day at Fresh Highs; FMCG Stocks Top Gainers

Asian share markets are mixed today as Chinese and Hong Kong shares fall. The Nikkei 225 is down 0.2% while the Hang Seng is down 0.7%. The Shanghai Composite is trading down by 0.7%.
Back home, India share markets opened the day on a positive note, hitting new highs. The BSE Sensex is higher by 110 points while the NSE Nifty is trading up by 28 points. The BSE Mid Cap index and BSE Small Cap index both opened the day up by 0.5% & 0.3% respectively.
Sectoral indices have opened the day on a mixed note with FMCG stocks and stocks in the capital goods sectorwitnessing maximum buying interest. The rupee is trading at 68.63 to the US$.
Moving on to the news from IPO space. HDFC Asset Management Company, the joint venture between Housing Development Finance Corporation and Standard Life Investments, opened its initial public offering for subscription yesterday.
The IPO seems to be in high demand as it was fully subscribed within on the first day of the bidding process.
This is the sixth public offer of the current financial year 2018-19, after TCNS Clothing, Varroc Engineering, RITESFine Organics Industries and Indostar Capital Finance.
The price band of the issue is set at Rs 1,095 to Rs 1,100 apiece.
HDFC Asset Management Company (HDFC AMC) is the asset management arm of Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC Ltd). Promoted by HDFC in 1999, Standard Life Investments (SLI) acquired 26% stake in HDFC AMC in 2001, and now the company operates as a joint venture between HDFC and SLI.
The company has been the largest AMC in India in terms of equity-oriented AUM since the last quarter of FY11.As of March 31, 2018, its proportion of equity-oriented AUM to total AUM was at 51.3%, which was higher than the industry average of 43.2%. Equity-oriented schemes generally have a higher fee structure than non-equity-oriented schemes, and this is where HDFC AMC wields its competitive advantage.
To know our view on this IPO, you can read our IPO note on HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd (requires subscription).
Speaking of IPOs, what if one had invested in all the IPOs? How have the IPOs performed in 2017? And, have they outperformed the indices?

IPOs Underperform Broad Market Indices

According to an article in Business Standard, an investor who bet on the 33 IPOs of 2017 (on a weighted average basis) has seen the value of investment rise by 17%. However, compared to broad market indices, the underperformance is a bitter disappointment.
The above chart clearly shows the underperformance of IPOs.
What is the reason for this underperformance?
One of the key reasons IPOs have touched the altitude is due to a surge in the Indian equity market backed by liquidity and increasing investor demand for financial assets. Private equity investors and promoters took advantage of the absurd demand and came out with sky-rocket valuations. This is what we call a valuation bubble in the IPO market.
In our previous edition, we categorically stated:
  • "With greed hypnotising most folks, it is time for retail investors to exercise caution. While this does not mean that you should avoid IPOs lock, stock, and barrel; just ensure you do not end up paying higher valuations for a company that is yet to establish its worth".
During such times, it is imperative to be critically selective when investing in IPOs. Carefully analyse each company for its own merits and don't give in to the hype surrounding the public offering.
To know how to safely profit from the IPO rush, download this FREE report now and discover How to Get Rich with IPOs.
Moving on to news from the banking sector. In another successful resolution of the ongoing insolvency resolution plan of the Reserve Bank of India, Liberty House has received approval from the National Company Law tribunal (NCLT) for acquiring debt-laden Amtek Auto.
Amtek Auto was among the first list of 12 large bad loan accounts that the RBI identified for insolvency resolution. Notably, the company owes over Rs 126 billion to its lenders.
The lenders have however, taken a 65% haircut to allow Liberty House's offer for repayment of Rs 44 billion.
As part of its resolution plan, Liberty House has offered to pay Rs 32.2 billion upfront to the financial creditors and proposed to infuse Rs 5 billion for stabilizing and improving operations. Besides Liberty House also plans to invest another Rs 10 billion over the next 2-3 years.
Amtek Auto is the fifth large insolvent company to be resolved under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) after Bhushan Steel, Electrosteel Steels, Monnet Ispat and Adhunik Metaliks. Amtek Auto was admitted for insolvency proceedings in July last year on a petition filed by Corporation Bank.
This article was originally published in English at www.equitymaster.com
Read the complete Indian stock market update. For the terms of use, go here.

Indian Indices Trade Marginally Higher; Metal Stocks Witness Buying

Share markets in India are presently trading marginally higher. Sectoral indices are trading on a positive note with stocks in the metal sector and finance sector witnessing maximum buying interest.
The BSE Sensex is trading up by 77 points (up 0.2%), while the NSE Nifty is trading up by 11 points (up 0.1%). The BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.3%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.6%.
The rupee is trading at 68.79 to the US$.
In the news from the IPO space, as per the news, HDFC Asset Management Company (AMC) raised Rs 7,320 million from anchor investors. The fund house has allotted 66.53 lakh shares at Rs 1,100 per share to 61 anchor investors garnering Rs 732 crore.
The company has opened its initial public offering for subscription today.
This is the sixth public offer of the current financial year 2018-19, after TCNS Clothing, Varroc Engineering, RITESFine Organics Industries and Indostar Capital Finance.
The price band of the issue is set at Rs 1,095 to Rs 1,100 apiece.
To know our view on this IPO, you can read our IPO note on HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd (requires subscription).
In other news, Symphony share price is witnessing selling pressure today. Losses are seen as the company reported a 48.7% year-on-year (YoY) fall in consolidated net profit at Rs 200 million for the quarter to June.
In the news from the commodity space, crude oil is witnessing buying interest today. Gains are seen as data showed US crude inventories fell more than expected last week, thereby easing worries about oversupply.
As per the data by the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week to July 20 to 407.6 million barrels. This was compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 2.3 million barrels.
Further, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub dropped by 808,000 barrels and refinery crude runs declined by 60,000 barrels per day. Gasoline stocks fell by 4.9 million barrels.
Market participants are now awaiting official figures from the US Department of Energy Information Administration which are to be released today.
Note that, global oil prices have climbed steadily this year, helped by rising demand. They have topped US$ 80 per barrel in May for the first time in three and a half years.
Rising crude oil prices doesn't bode well for the Indian economy, as it not only affects fuel prices, but also has many other repercussions on the macroeconomic level.
They can be a big worry for the Modi government as well as it has been a big beneficiary of lower crude oil prices.
Have a look at the chart below. It shows India's total import bill of crude oil and petroleum products on an annual basis during the Manmohan Singh regime and the Narendra Modi regime.

Here's Why Crude Oil Was Modi's Best Friend So Far

As Ankit Shah wrote in one of the editions of The 5 Minute WrapUp...
  • During the UPA II regime, India's average annual oil import bill was US$ 133 billion. In fact, in the last three years of Manmohan Singh's leadership, the oil import bill exceeded US$ 150 billion. Compare that with an average annual oil bill of US$ 95 billion during the four years of Modi's leadership.

    The actual savings would have been even higher, because I believe the consumption of crude oil and petroleum products would have been quite higher in the Modi era than the Manmohan era.

    Last Thursday, Brent crude oil prices shot above US$ 80 a barrel.

    This is the highest level since 2014. In the past one year alone, oil prices have surged more than 50%.

    Now, what if oil prices go back to the levels during the Manmohan Singh regime? What would happen to India's current account and fiscal deficit? What would happen to inflation and RBI's stance on interest rates?

    With the next general elections just a year away, rising crude oil prices are going to be a big worry for the Modi government.

    It should worry you too...
Apart from that, what does rising crude oil prices mean for stock markets?
Richa Agarwal, editor of Hidden Treasure, tracks the oil and gas sector very closely. She believes the rise in crude oil prices is a bearish sign for stock markets globally. At the same time, any market correction, will throw up interesting buying opportunities in small-cap stocks.
This is what she wrote...
  • After hitting a low of US$ 30 per barrel in January 2016, prices have more than doubled to US$ 68 in April 2018.

    The recent news of Saudi Arabia wanting crude oil prices to touch US$ 100 per barrel doesn't help. The 2008 recession was preceded by crude oil touching US$ 150 per barrel. Any movement upwards can result in a possible downturn for the global market.

    While the Hidden Treasure team looks for long-term wealth creators, such macro situations can help to recommend such stocks at a bargain. The ones who keeps calm, when everyone else is losing their heads, will gain the most when the tide turns.
How the government handles this situation of rising crude oil and fuel prices remains to be seen. Meanwhile, we will keep you posted on all the developments from this space. Stay tuned.
This article was originally published in English at www.equitymaster.com
Read the complete Indian stock market update. For the terms of use, go here.